Using Stop Loss Orders to Determine When to Enter a Trade

Many people enter into trades with little more than a desire for profit. In Forex we normally use between 50 – 400 to 1 leverage. Because of the large amount of leverage we are able to use, simply hoping for a profit is not enough. Traders need a solid plan before the pull they trigger. When planning any battle, successful generals begin at the retreat and work their way backwards. Traders should do the same. The first and most important decision is when to admit defeat and retreat. Survival to fight another day is more important that going down with the ship. This article proposes that traders take a different approach to figuring out when and where to place their next trade. The approach is simple. Just like the generals, start by figuring out when to get out. This may sound strange, but if you apply this idea to whatever other methods you are using to determine your entry signals, your bottom line should improve. The overall idea is simple, rather than first looking for a good entry point, look for a point where you would want to be stopped out. At this point you are probably saying “who ever wants to get stopped out?”

The answer is, not the majority. But let’s look at several statistics for a moment to get some perspective. Depending on who you believe, anywhere between 75-95% of all retail Forex traders blow out their account within one year. So it seems that the 5-25% of traders who are winning are doing something different then the majority who are losing. One of those main differences is not being bothered by getting stopped out. Many new traders complain that they hate trading with stops because they have been stopped out of a trade that almost immediately turned around and would have been a huge winner had they not run the stop. They take that to mean that they should not trade with stops. Trading without some kind of risk management is like playing Russian roulette by yourself, it may not be the next pull of the trigger that kills you, but pull it enough times and sooner or later it’s a sure thing. Trading without risk management is much the same. You may get away with it for a while, but the lesson you are learning will sooner or later prove deadly.

There are many forms of risk management, from the extremely complex, like cross hedging with options, to the very simple, such as using stops. The use of stop loss orders is one of the simplest and often most effective way to manage the risks of any given trade. The reason many traders have had a bad experience with using stops is not the fault of the stop itself, but rather the placement of the stop. Most traders get into a trade and then decide where to run a stop, if at all. They often have a fixed dollar amount that they are willing to risk per trade and they then place the stop loss order accordingly. All of this on the surface sounds like a good plan, but in practice it often leads to the scenario mentioned before, where the trade gets stopped out and then the market turns on a dime and goes the way the trader had originally anticipated, leaving them to mistakenly blame the stop. The individual points that led to the stop being placed are not bad in and of themselves, but put together this way, they often lead to the frustration mentioned above.

So let us look at these issues from another angle. Rather than getting into a trade and then deciding where to get out, let’s determine the exit point and let that dictate where we get in. To do this you will need a chart. Choose the chart’s time-frame based on how long you intend to hold the trade. If you only hold your trades for a few hours then a 15 or 60 minute chart should be fine. If you are more of a swing trader, then daily or even weekly charts would be best. Currencies tend to trend more than most other markets. However, they do not trend all the time. In fact the opposite is true. Most markets only trend about 30% of the time. The remaining 70% of the time they are trading within a range or chopping. Therefore, learning how to trade the chop is paramount if you want to be a trader for years to come. What follows is a simple yet effective way to trade the chop.